Science News内容：

题  目：NASA Finds Black Hole Potentially Accreting at Super-Eddington Limit

报告人：马欣昀（紫台研究生）

Journal club内容：

题  目：A collision probability estimation paradox and two solutions

摘  要：In traditional satellite conjunction analysis,collision risk is often expressed using epistemic probability. However,this approach suffers from two fundamental deficiencies — probability dilution and false confidence — that cause systematic underestimation of collision risk. As orbital uncertainty increases,the computed collision probability paradoxically first rises and then decreases, misleadingly implying improved safety with lower data quality. Based on the False Confidence Theorem, this paper demonstrates that the root cause lies in the additivity axiom of probability theory, which prevents proper representation of epistemic uncertainty. To overcome this limitation, the Martin–Liu validity criterion is introduced, requiring that the aleatory probability of assigning high belief to any false proposition must not exceed its belief level.

报 告 人：崔锴祺 （紫台研究生）

时  间：2025年11月28日星期五12:15

地  点：紫台3-302

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